Warren has a barbell problem, and the middle of the market is where the competition is
Across 353 Warren closings in the last two years, homes between $750,000 and $1.5 million sold in about three weeks at or above ask. Both ends of the market took twice as long and closed below it.
Warren Township's housing market is strongest in the middle. Across 353 closings between August 2024 and August 2026, homes priced from $750,000 to $1.5 million sold at 101 to 102 percent of their asking price with a median of 19 to 21 days on market. Homes under $750,000 took a median of 32 days and closed at 95.8 percent of ask. Homes above $2 million took 41 days and closed at 97.4 percent. The pattern is a barbell, with soft ends and a competitive center.
Aggregate market statistics hide the thing sellers most want to know, which is whether their particular price range is the busy one. In Warren, it usually is not the top.
Here is every Warren closing over the last two years, cut by price.
| Price band | Closings | Median DOM | Sale to list | Share at or over ask | Median $/sf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $750,000 | 77 | 32 | 95.8% | 23.4% | $406 |
| $750,000 to $1M | 85 | 21 | 101.2% | 48.2% | $377 |
| $1M to $1.25M | 46 | 19 | 102.4% | 39.1% | $416 |
| $1.25M to $1.5M | 56 | 20 | 101.6% | 39.3% | $423 |
| $1.5M to $2M | 56 | 22 | 101.0% | 42.9% | $384 |
| $2M and up | 33 | 41 | 97.4% | 24.2% | $465 |
The middle four bands behave like one market
From $750,000 to $2 million, the numbers barely move. Median days on market sits between 19 and 22. Sale to list ratio sits between 101.0 and 102.4 percent. Roughly four in ten sales clear at or above the final asking price.
That is 243 of the 353 closings, or 69 percent of everything that traded. For most of Warren, the market is one thing, and that thing is quick and slightly competitive.
The single hottest band is $1M to $1.25M, at 102.4 percent of ask and a median of 19 days. That is also the thinnest band in the set at 46 closings, which means fewer choices for buyers who are looking there.
Both ends are slower, for opposite reasons
Under $750,000 is not a weak market so much as a different one. Warren's entry price point is heavily populated by attached and age restricted product rather than detached single family homes on land. Note the median price per square foot in that band, $406, which is higher than the three bands directly above it. Small units carry a high per foot number and a low total, and they trade on a different clock than a house on an acre.
Above $2 million is a genuine thin market. Thirty three sales over 24 months works out to about one every three weeks. When the buyer pool for a property is measured in individuals rather than dozens, days on market lengthens and the last five percent of price becomes negotiable. The 97.4 percent sale to list ratio and the 24.2 percent share clearing ask both reflect that. So does the $465 median price per square foot, the highest in the table, because these are the largest and best finished houses in town.
What this means if you are pricing a house
The practical read is about which side of $750,000 and $2 million you land on.
A detached house that prices into the $750,000 to $1.5 million range enters the most liquid part of the Warren market, where the recent record shows quick absorption and frequent competition. A house that prices above $2 million enters a market with a small buyer pool where the exposure period is measured in months rather than weeks, and where the pricing decision carries more weight because there are fewer transactions to calibrate against.
Neither of those is a forecast. It is what the last 353 closings did.
A caveat on the bands themselves
Price band analysis has a built in circularity. A house sells for what it sells for, so the band it lands in is partly a result of how it was priced and how the negotiation went, not just what it is. A house listed at $2.1 million that closes at $1.95 million moves down a band and drags that band's sale to list ratio up.
The effect is real but small at these sample sizes, and it does not explain a spread of nearly seven points in sale to list ratio between the softest and strongest bands. For a property specific read, the band is a starting point and a proper comparable analysis is the actual work.
Method notes and the full index series are on the Warren Housing Index page.
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher.
- Garden State MLS closed sales, Warren Township (Somerset County), 353 closings from August 17, 2024 through August 17, 2026, queried via BigQuery view v_gsmls_enriched
- Warren Housing Index methodology and full series. https://johnmangini.com/warren-07059/warren-housing-index
